Posted November 17, 2018 07:01:33In the lead-up to the 2018 Australian housing crash, property analysts and experts were debating how to predict when the housing market would collapse.
But, after years of studying the past, it turns out the real estate industry is a very predictable business.
And the Australian real estate market is so predictable that, according to a new report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, every Australian has the ability to predict exactly when the market will crash.
It’s called the “ABSR” model, and it is based on how many people own homes in the country.
Using data from the ABS, it predicts how many Australians own and rent their home every month.
“So you have a lot of houses that are sold,” Andrew Smith, the director of research at ABS, told Business Insider Australia.
“And people are looking for a place to live.
And if there’s only a few people who want to buy, the house price is going to fall.”
It’s been a common refrain, even when the markets have crashed, that the government should “help people buy”.
But experts said that’s a mistake.
“The government should focus on building more houses, not more houses and more people,” economist and real estate expert Michael Caulfield said.
“What’s going to happen is the number of houses will fall, but the number and size of people who own them will not.”
In Australia, about three million homes are currently owned by people over 65.
And just like the housing bubble, many of those people are renting.
And with housing prices already spiralling and many of the country’s ageing population moving into the property market, it’s clear that the realtor is now the biggest risk.
The ABS has also predicted that the price of property will decline by 20% by 2023, but experts say it’s not likely to be that big a drop.
“We’re not seeing a big increase in the value of the property that people are buying.
So the impact will be much smaller than you might think,” Caulfields said.
The real estate experts agree that, like the real house market, there are a lot more variables to the housing boom than just the price.
But they say the ABSR model is based primarily on a model where the average Australian owns about one home a year.
“This is the model that the ABS uses to look at the market, so you don’t have to do any modelling to understand the market,” Smith said.
Smith said that the average price of homes in Australia is about $300,000.
“That is a little over half of the average house price in Australia.
That is a big difference,” he said.
But even though average price has dropped in recent years, it is still more than $400,000 a home.
So what can the realtors do to prevent a crash?
“There are a number of things you can do to help prevent the market from crashing,” Smith told Business.
“It’s a good idea to look into getting more people into the market.”
It also seems like a great idea to buy and rent more homes, and make sure you have good credit and are willing to borrow a lot.
But for now, there is a clear disconnect between what is happening in the real-estate market and what’s happening in people’s lives.
“People are buying more houses in Australia than they are selling,” Smith added.
“You’ve got a lot fewer people owning houses than you’d expect.
People are buying the houses they can afford, but not actually living in them.”